Racial Identity Explains Presidential Vote Choices More than Geography

hands placing ballots in a ballot box with an American flag in the background
July 6, 2023

In the first study of racial voting pattens to examine every U.S. congressional district, CSAP faculty affiliate Shiro Kuriwaki and his colleagues found that race explained 60% of variation in voting preferences for the last two presidential elections, with geography accounting for another 30% of the variation.

For a paper published last week in American Political Science Review, Kuriwaki, Stephen Ansolabehere and Angelo Dagonel of Harvard University, and Soichiro Yamauchi developed new statistical techniques and applied them to large-sample surveys and demographic and presidential election data from all 435 congressional districts across the country.  Read the full story by Rick Harrison at the link below.

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