AMERICAN POLITICS & PUBLIC POLICY WORKSHOP
Abstract: Understanding how ideology affects election outcomes helps us understand representation, polarization and policy-making. The mechanism for ideology to matter is complicated because candidate incentives vary depending on whether voters vote sincerely, strategically, or directionally. This paper unifies these possibilities into a single model in which voters evaluate candidates based on the expected policy outcomes of electing the candidates rather than based directly on the candidates’ ideological positions. The model makes four core predictions. (1) Extremism is common. (2) One-party districts are common, with significant implications for how institutions affect political behavior. (3) Position-taking and voting play out very differently when chamber control is closely contested. (4) Extremism and one-party districts are more common in legislative than gubernatorial races. The model is also consistent with previous literature on policy-motivated voting in midterms. Existing empirical findings and new evidence suggest that the model captures important patterns in politics.
Michael Bailey is the Colonel William J. Walsh Professor of American Government in the Department of Government and McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University. Bailey teaches and conducts research on American politics and political economy. His work covering trade, Congress, election law and the Supreme Court, methodology and inter-state policy competition has been published in the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, World Politics, the Journal of Law, Economics and Organization and elsewhere. Bailey’s latest book is Polling at a Crossroads: Rethinking Modern Survey Research from Cambridge University Press. Information on his research is available at https://michaelbailey.georgetown.domains/.
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